Warmist Bait and Switch

I had thought I was going to use this blog to just to lay out my position on the global warming controversy and not to make additional posts as with a normal blog.  However in recent weeks I have felt a little frustrated by the fact that I have attempted to make reasonable points on pro-CAGW blogs but the people running those blogs have failed to publish my comments.  So I have decided to start posting thoughts here.

This post arises from an exchange I had with a warmist blogger.  This blogger essentially claimed that “global cooling since 1998” was a “myth.”

To me, stating that a claim is a “myth” means you are saying, in essence, that there is essentially no factual basis for the claim.  Is that the case with “global cooling since 1998”?  It does not seem so:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/to:2009

According to the “HadCRUT” data series (which I understand to be one of the leading temperature data series), it does appear that global surface temperatures are generally trending downwards between 1998 and the present.  I pointed this out to the blogger, who responded as follows:

[If you pick a different start year and/or a different temperature series, you might have a different impression. For instance try Gistemp from 1999.

Of course 10 years is way too short to draw any conclusions, especially when a record year is cherrypicked as the starting point. A more compelling analysis would note that long term linear trend are as high or higher compared to the period ending in 1998, or that the 2000s are significantly warmer than the 1990s, on average. In all data sets, including HadCRU.]

It seems to me that this blogger is engaging in bait and switch tactics.  The claim was that global cooling since 1998 is a “myth.”  But this is not the claim that this blogger is defending.  Instead, he is arguing that by some other measures, global surface temperatures have not been trending downwards.  And that any cooling does not invalidate his basic position.

I am happy to discuss these other issues, but first let’s face facts:  Global cooling since 1998 is not a myth.

I debate with warmists a lot, and these sorts of bait and switch tactics are pretty common.

Update:  I edited this post to take out the name of the blog in question.

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