Another Red Flag: Predictions Which are Conveniently Difficult to Falsify

Here is a graph which purports to show model predictions for arctic sea ice:

What’s interesting to me about the graph is how convenient it is for climate modelers.  According to the graph, the really dramatic changes will not start taking place for another 20 years or so.  In the short term, i.e. the next 10 or 20 years, it doesn’t matter whether artic sea ice increases modestly, decreases modestly, or stays the same.  In all of these cases, the climate modelers can say that reality is consistent with their models. 

In 10 or 20 years, if and when their predictions don’t pan out, they can claim that their models have improved a lot since then.

This is a red flag that the models are bogus.


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